I make dumb predictions all of the time. I'll call up my brother in the middle of the day in February and say something like "The Astros are going to be better this year." I'll tell my kids "It's going to snow 8 inches this weekend." These predictions aren't usually based on anything more than some tweet I saw, or the weather forecast I listened to with half an ear. I love to make these kind of predictions even if I don't have any kind of success. Turns out that there are people who have been making predictions as part of an experiment by the author Philip Tetlock, and he's sharing their secrets in his book Superforecasting.
Superforecasting sounds really hard when you first read about it, but this book makes it seem approachable. It's full of tips to approach problems big and small. I especially liked the sections that talked about the project's participants, their backgrounds, and the reasons for their forecasting success.
I recommend this book to anyone who is interested in books about brain science, polling, or decision making. It's a good one!
(Note: Blogging For Books sent me this book, but all opinions are my own.)